There will be a highly interesting return leg in Azerbaijan when
Qarabag will try to turn around the deficit in Goteborg, as the Swedes
stole a 1-0 victory in the first leg despite being severely outplayed on
the pitch in terms of chances created and possession – It comes down to
effectiveness in the end, and it was a one shot wonder which saved the
Swedes, and obviously they will use that goal as a cushion going to
Azerbaijan. Qarabag travelled home with a disappointing feeling but
have more than decent chances to make it interesting on home soil.
Let’s remain on the word “home soil” for a second, and justify one
hugely important factor. Qarabag might be this Europa League qualifiers
strongest home team if we look at the record, and is perhaps one of the
most difficult places to visit if we overlook the big teams. The last
time they suffered a home loss was against Tottenham on the 11th of
November 2015. They finished with a 15-3-0 home record with 40-6 in goal
differential at home in the domestic league but also gave several top
teams in Europe a tough time when they visited. Therefore, the players
from Qarabag feel confident in turning things around in their fortress.
Azerbaijan as a football nation might not be what immediately puts
any scare in opponents, however the domestic league consist of wealthy
and more importantly very ambitious clubs. The most recent examples as
Gabala and Qarabag who leads this example. With striker Reynaldo, who is
a proven lethal scorer in his prime age of 26, there will be chances to
score more than once. Defensively they can lean on Ansi Agolli who is
coming from a great Euro 2016 campaign with Albania. It might not be
“well known” names but certainly experienced when it comes to
international caps and Europa League / Champions League play. Coach
Gurban Gurbanov is a successful coach during his time, with having won
54.6% of his coached games.
The tactics and match picture worked very well for Qarabag in the
first leg – so we should expect the same lineup to take shape at home as
well
While the Swedish league might be stronger than the one in
Azerbaijan, Goteborg are not having a good year domestically and the
victory against Qarabag at home came as a gift from above after only
managing 4 shots compared to 17 for the visitors – still, it was enough
to celebrate. Goteborg do have financial problems and therefore they are
fully focused on qualifying for Europa League as it comes with well
needed money. They have lost the title race in the Swedish league and
this was particularly visible when they lost against Hammarby in the
last fixture, after resting key players Tobias Hysen, Soren Rieks and
the scorer from the first leg, Mads Albaek. It is a strong statement of
being focused on the task at hand, but the away record for Goteborg is
surprisingly weak after going 3-3-4.
Striker Gustav Engvall (15/3) will not travel with the team. Also,
young midfielder Patrik Karlsson-Lagemyr (11/2) will miss the clash.
Truth comes first, and regarless of how you look at the first result,
Goteborg experienced their once in a lifetime victory thanks to a
wonder goal, a solid strike by Mads Albaek. The Azerbaijan side were
superior in everything but efficiency, and it was a big difference in
technique, passing, movement, fluency, creativity, attempts – the list
certainly goes on. With home soil advantage for Qarabag and only one
goal to chase, it is more than a doable task. Goteborg have been weak
their away fixtures and the Azerbaijan side will hit the gas pedal from
the start. Expect more dominance than in the first leg – as such, -1
asian handicap for the hosts suits well in my eyes.
