Benfica vs Borussia Dortmund
UEFA Champions League – Round of 16
Date: Tuesday, 14th February 2017.
Kick-Off at 19:45 UK / 20:45 CET
Venue: Estadio da Luz, Lisbon.
Benfica managed to navigate their way through a tricky but wide open Champions League group in the first half of this season, finishing second in their group behind winners Napoli but ahead of fellow contenders Besiktas and Dynamo Kiev with eight points from their six matches.
Things have been going rather well for them since that qualification. They followed their final group game defeat to Napoli with a run of eight straight victories and eventually went 11 games unbeaten in all competitions. They did then lose back to back games in the Taca da Liga and the Portuguese Primeira Liga back at the end of January, but they have managed to bounce back with consecutive 3-0 wins at home to Nacional and Arouca in the past couple of weekends.
Benfica’s home form has been almost impeccable this season though. They have lost just once there all season in that final Champions League match against Napoli. Apart from that they have won 14 times and drawn three to take them to the top of their domestic table with a point advantage over Porto in 2nd and a huge 13 point gap between them and Sporting CP.
Borussia Dortmund will be no pushovers here though. They surprisingly managed to top their Champions League group ahead of Real Madrid and went unbeaten through the group stages. Domestically things haven’t gone to plan for them, with RB Leipzig and Eintracht Frankfurt upsetting the apple cart and leaving them 4th in the Bundesliga. However, this will only serve to place even more emphasis on a successful Champions League campaign.
They do come into this game on the back of a 2-1 defeat to Darmstadt at the weekend though, with that ending their 12 match unbeaten streak. They have only won six of their last 13 games though, so they are by no means invincible.
Away from home just three of their last nine outings have ended in victory, with two defeats and four draws making up the rest of their results. They haven’t kept a clean sheet on the road since their 6-0 thrashing of Legia Warsaw in their Champions League group stage opener, conceding in all 14 of their games since then. They have scored in all but one of those matches as well though.
Benfica have a fairly solid defence on home soil, but keeping a Borussia Dortmund side who have scored in all but two of their away days this season at bay for the entire game looks unlikely. They should have plenty of chances to score past the visitors though, with them keeping just one clean sheet on the road all season. This makes odds of 7/10 for Both Teams to Score look very good value, so I’m backing that alongside a 2-2 correct score predictions at 12/1.
Benfica striker Jonas missed the group stages through injury, but he’s back in the starting line up now. He has scored four goals in his five home appearances this season and looks the highest value choice for our anytime goalscorer predictions at 8/5.
Benfica vs Borussia Dortmund: Head-to-head stats
The lone meeting between the two sides in a UEFA competition has to be dated back to the 1963/64 season. It was in the two-legged final of European Champion Clubs Cup. Benfica won the first leg 2-1, but Dortmund thrashed them 5-0 in the return leg to overturn the deficit.
Benfica’s record against German clubs in 42 matches is 12 wins, 14 draws and 16 defeats. However, they can boast of a strong record at home against Bundesliga oppositions; with 10 wins, 8 draws and 2 losses from 20 games.
Dortmund were up against Portuguese oppositions on 10 occasions and have a good record with 7 wins and 3 losses. All 3 defeats have come away at Portugal during their 5 visits. However they had won in the latest 2 visits. Meanwhile, they can boast of a 100% win record at home.
Benfica vs Borussia Dortmund: Prediction
Borussia Dortmund haven’t looked that convincing since the start of the new year. And they seem to struggle at large while playing away from home, regardless of the quality of the opposition.
On the other hand, Benfica are one of the few sides who can trouble some big European sides while playing in front of their home fans. A free scoring Bayern came here last season and had to satisfy with a draw.
Therefore, we can expect a very fierce battle on Tuesday evening. And as you compare the recent form of both teams, Benfica look set to take at least a draw from this fixture.
Benfica vs Borussia Dortmund: Bet Tips
Double Chance – Benfica or Draw at 1.70 (7/10).
